Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Tracking the Latest Polls

Good Sign for Weiner After Months of Debates Not One Candidate Has Gained Traction
New Mayoral Poll
Quinn lowest level in five months
Quinn Loses Popularity, but Retains Lead in Mayoral Race, Poll Finds(NYT) According to a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, only 32 percent of likely Democratic voters said they favored Ms. Quinn in the Democratic primary, compared with 37 percent six weeks ago. Public Advocate Bill de Blasio came in second at 14 percent; former Comptroller Bill Thompson was third at 13 percent and current Comptroller John Liu trailed at 7 percent. Longshot Sal Albanese, a former City Councilman, was not included. In the previous poll released on Feb. 27, deBlasio had the same 14 percent; Thompson had 11 percent and Liu was at 9 percent. Voters still had a highly favorable opinion of Quinn at 49/24 percent positive/negative, down from 51/21 percent. In the Republican contest, Doe Fund founder George McDonald made an impressive move from 2 to 11 percent. He was still trailing front runner Joe Lhota, the former MTA chairman, who had 23 percent. Business magnate John Catsimatides was in third place with 8 percent.She’s still 18 percentage points ahead of her closest competitor, NYC Public Advocate Bill de Blasio

Polling Results Mixed
A Marist Poll A Week Before the 2009 Mayor's Race Showed Bloomberg Winning by 16% He Won By 5%

POLL POSITION: Public pollsters have had mixed success in predicting the results of New York City elections over the years, from Dinkins-Giuliani in 1989 to Bloomberg-Thompson in 2009. Will they do any better this year?(City and State)

POLL-ITICALLY INCORRECT: Campaigns sometimes dismiss public polls and the methodology behind them, but public pollsters counter that internal polls are the ones that should be viewed skeptically. Who’s right? (City and State) * And/but - says public polling matches what he's heard about private polling in mayor's race * More from , question is whether Quinn gets to 40 percent. Sub-q, which isn't posed, is can she win runoff

 Joe Who, Quinn Steady Big Lead Points to Future Attack Campaign Aganist Her

They May Not Know Much About Lhota, But They Even Know Less About the Other GOP Candidates.  The only one who know they names are the bloggers who treat them like rock stars
Ex-M.T.A. Chief and Mayoral Candidate Is Unknown to Many Voters, Poll Says(NYT) Joseph J. Lhota, the former chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, remains an unknown quantity to the vast majority of New Yorkers, according to the poll. Sixty-nine percent said that they did not know enough about him to say whether they liked him or not, and of those who did, 19 percent assessed him favorably, and 11 did not.  

Lhota, Quinn front-runners to win party nods for mayor: poll(NYP)In the latest Qunnipiac University poll, former MTA chairman Joe Lhota leads the Republican primary for New York City mayor with 23 percent, while City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leads the Democratic field with 35 percent. Lhota is followed by businessman John Catsimatidis with 9 percent, newspaper publisher Tom Allon with 5 percent, former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion with 3 percent and Doe Fund founder George McDonald with 2 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University poll finds. Public Advocate Bill de Blasio has 11 percent, with 10 percent for former City Comptroller William Thompson and 9 percent for Comptroller John Liu.* Also, all the Democratic hopefuls beat Lhota by a margin of at least 3 to 1.* Joe ‘Who?’ Lhota Has a Long Way to Go(NY Mag) * While on Inside City Hall, GOP mayoral candidate Tom Allon was more than effusive for the gun control bill, adding he “absolutely” does not agree with Republicans opposed to new gun laws.*
The Rev. Al Sharpton said GOP mayoral hopeful Joe Lhota will face opposition in the minority community because he’ll be viewed as a “continuation” of the Giuliani years. * Examination Of Republican Voters In NYC
NY1 Covers the Horse Race Over the Issues With A Marist Pollster Organization Who Showed Bloomberg Winning by 16% the Last Week of the Campaign (He Won By 5%)
NY1-Marist Poll Shows More Undecided Voters In Mayor Race(NY1) 23 percent of the city’s registered Democrats support Quinn, according to the latest NY1-Marist College poll. That’s just eight points ahead of former City Comptroller Bill Thompson. Current Comptroller John Liu places third with nine percent, followed by Public Advocate Bill de Blasio 8% , Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer 6%  and publisher Tom Allon 2%, who announced this week that he’ll run as a Republican instead. A whopping 37 percent of voters, meanwhile, are undecided.  Meanwhile, enthusiasm has cooled for a Ray Kelly candidacy. Where voters were about evenly split in April, 46 percent now say they don’t want the police commissioner to run, versus 35 percent who do. As for speculation that one-time mayoral candidate Anthony Weiner could mount a comeback, voters aren’t having it. 58 percent don’t want him to run again. Just 25 percent do. NYC voters aren’t enthusiastic about a potential Alec Baldwin candidacy for mayor in 2013.   The media reports on  the Marist Poll  without examining the accuracy of a poll which showed the mayor beating Thompson in 2009 by 16% a week before the election. * City Hall Horse Race: Marist Mania Edition(NYO)

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